Schools Post Oil: What is going to happen to our educational system?

We all love our schools dearly in this country. Every Monday night across countless fields, our high school football teams face off under the lights, with the roar of their frenzied parents and fan fare of the bands behind them. But what happens to them when the lights go out for good?

For the last fifty or so years our nations schools have been suburbanized, centralized, and have downsized on teaching staff and resources. Before the age of the yellow school bus fleets and high school campuses that resemble shopping malls, we had a smaller, less centralized, system. A system that was walkable, flexible, and very personalized for that region. But no longer. Our children get bused from far away to massive buildings, full of thousands of students, where two teachers could work at the same school all their careers and never meet. If you are reading this blog you likely have a good handle on how poorly our schools operate from various angles, such as quality of education or efficiency of resource use, but have you ever considered what would happen if the students couldn't even get to school if they wanted to?

The scenario almost plays out like a charity commercial for a third world country. Students longing to get to schools but they are too far to walk or bike. The roads are rough from even a year of disrepair, and in the winter months the way is simply impassable. The schools are shells, falling down around the few teachers and students that manage their ways in every day. Water supplies are inconsistent, lights are broken or off dew to power outages, and heating and air conditioning systems are inoperable. Books are old and tattered and all the marvelous technological innovations of the 20th century are useless. It is a sad and stark reminder of what we will not be able to accomplish in a world beset by constant oil shortages and/or total oil depletion.

So how will schools need to adapt in the times to come? There are many answers or at least many options. Not every school is the same, nor is the town in which it is located, neither are the places they will no longer be able to serve, and the traditional methods of teaching might not apply from town to town, city to city.

The biggest change will have to be in size and geographic location of schools. Gone will be the day that kids can be bused from miles and miles around. Instead of serving entire districts schools will be forced to serve much smaller populations. To give you an idea of school sizes, the average school district in America serves about two thousand students grades K-12 and this is inclusive of vocational and other schooling. Two thousand students is a very large population for a school system and in a post-oil age it is likely that the average population of an entire district will shrink to a fraction of this. I predict that the average school will serve between fifty and a hundred students, that number may shrink or swell based on geographical location. In some cities it is totally foreseeable for a school to serve a few hundred students, and maybe even a thousand, based on the walkability of cities. On the flip side of this, our rural districts could become completely home schooled or turn into a local communal form of education with neighbourhood families taking shares of the responsibility for the education of their young people. "School" sizes in places such as these could be as small as a couple dozen students K-12.

The schedule of schools will likely stay within some semblance of what it is today. I would imagine since schools would be serving their own immediate localities, each would have their own unique calendar year. But regardless of location schools will likely revert to a more agrarian based school year. Days might be shorter in the harvest and planting months and longer during the winter months. Most schools will likely be directly tied into local economies to the point that weekly decisions about scheduling may be made depending on who is available to teach what or if a local business may provide a learning opportunity to educate students. City schools will be less affected by this change. They inner city areas will probably lengthen their school years and shorten the days. This would not only afford teachers, but students even, the chance to get a part time job on top of their obligations to school. This would benefit the local work force as well as give teachers and students a deeper level of integration within their neighborhoods.

The role of the teacher will change drastically. The traditional teacher will be replaced by a more versatile and multifaceted individual, capable of not only teaching a "classic" subject like history, science, or math, but also more practical skills such as carpentry or farming. Vocational education through internships and work programs might become the new norm for students in their teens, in a time where learning a specific skill to contribute to the common good of your home town trumps individual success. The role of a teacher may become a higher valued position within a community. Parents and community leaders may, once again, look to teachers as the stewards of their future instead of necessary components of a educational industry. College, among other forms of higher education, may revert to a realm for the select, and lucky, few who can afford to leave their local community or have such a resource at their disposal locally.

As I touched on already it is likely that many student will not move on to more than a 8th or 9th grade educational level. This would be reasonable in a world post-oil, at least initially, for a few reasons. First is that a functioning high school may be out of reach geographically for some. Not all rural areas would be able to afford or support such and endeavor. It would be more practical for some students to simply move into the work force at the age of 13 or 14 if the only thing they need to know is how to support their family by living off the land. Certainly the structure of classes, content, and years of mandatory attendance would change but even in areas that are more densely settled than farm areas it will likely be more practical for students to apprentice in their communities in order to learn and preserve trades necessary to their town. Of course doctors, lawyers, teachers and politicians will still be needed but they will be those select few who will go on to higher educational institutions, if they still exist. The biggest worry here is the creation of a more intense class system where select areas of a state or even people of certain professions call the shots. I can see this happening, however, I hope that the feeling of belonging to a community and the sense of responsibility for a persons own people will not be lost on these lucky future few.

Indeed the role of education and the way it is executed is yet to be seen for the future. All that we can do is speculate and prepare for what may come. But the overarching theme needs to be this; that we MUST be prepared for any eventuality. The biggest weakness we will face as the world turns and changes is an uneducated population, especially if that population forgets the lessons of the past. We have ignored those lessons already and, because of that, we face a grim future.